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Production Forecasting: Key to Adapting in Dynamic Markets

Naama Aharoni  |  August 7, 2023

How to adapt to rapidly changing markets with the right forecast tools

The world we live in today is marked by rapidly changing markets and shifting consumer demands, with technology and innovation driving these changes faster than ever before. Identifying changes in market conditions and consumer preferences requires a deep understanding of the market and customers, which is time-consuming and challenging for process manufacturing companies.

Challenges in adapting to changing market conditions and consumer preferences

Here are some of the common challenges:

SPEED OF CHANGE
Technology advances quickly, and new competitors arise, so companies must be agile and adapt quickly to changing market conditions. This can be particularly difficult for companies that have invested heavily in existing production processes and infrastructure and may not have the flexibility to quickly pivot to new products or production methods.

SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION
Shipping delays, parts shortages, and transportation issues greatly impacted manufacturing companies in the past year. Production and profits were affected negatively, with up to a 13% decline in profits reported by survey respondents.

THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
The process manufacturing industry involves many stakeholders, including suppliers, distributors, and customers. This can make it difficult to get a clear picture of market conditions or consumer preferences, as many factors may drive changes in the market.

THE GLOBAL NATURE OF THE PRODUCTION INDUSTRY
Companies face regulatory and cultural differences across regions, making it hard to create effective products or marketing for multiple markets. Businesses need to gather market data and consumer insights proactively. This can include investing in research or collaborating with suppliers and distributors to identify trends.

ADDITIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL OR PRODUCTION INVESTMENT
Companies may need to be willing to take risks and invest in new technologies or production methods to help them stay competitive in the market. This may involve investing in research and development or partnering with startups or other innovative companies.

Forecast tools to predict future events

  1. WHAT ARE FORECAST TOOLS?
    Forecast tools use historical data and statistical models to predict future events, such as product demand, supply chain disruptions, and market changes. Forecast models range from flat scenarios to complex algorithms and can be customized to generate short-term or long-term predictions.

    Forecast tools enable companies to better manage their inventory, production planning, and supply chain and increase sales and revenue. They can optimize inventory levels, adjust production schedules, and anticipate supply chain changes to meet customer demand.
  2. HOW CAN YOU REDUCE YOUR TIME TO MARKET?
    Time-to-market is an important metric for any business. It reflects how quickly a company can get its products to market and how many resources it needs. Leveraging forecast tools can help reduce time-to-market by providing better visibility into future scenarios, enabling manufacturers to plan ahead and react quickly when necessary.

    The ability to anticipate customer demand also helps reduce time-to-market by allowing manufacturers to adjust production schedules and optimize inventory levels.

How to leverage forecast tools

  1. COLLECT AND ANALYZE HISTORICAL DATA
    This data should include information on sales, inventory levels, production schedules, and other relevant metrics. By analyzing this data, companies can identify patterns and trends that can help inform their forecasts.
  2. CHOOSE THE RIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
    The choice of model will depend on the nature of the business and the data being analyzed. Simple models like moving averages may be sufficient for some businesses, while more complex models may be necessary for others.
  3. SET REALISTIC FORECASTING GOALS
    Setting realistic goals will help ensure that forecast tools are used effectively and that the business can benefit from the insights provided by the forecast tools.
  4. MONITOR AND EVALUATE FORECASTS
    Process manufacturers should regularly monitor and evaluate their forecasts by comparing actual sales and inventory with forecasted values. If discrepancies arise, adjustments must be made to the forecasting model.

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